Thursday, September 8, 2011

Sorry BAC, you can keep your "Book Value"

Bank of America Corp has an ugly chart.  Buffett and Berkshire cut their deal with BAC and Moynihan is crying out all clear. 

Bove says book value is this or that and that the stock should move from 7s to 10s. 

I have a feeling that BAC's own analyst, Guy Moszkowski, may agree with Bove.  I remember when Moszkowski maintained a "buy" rating on Bear Sterns @ 140 in June 2007. The price to book value was "1.3", significantly lower than peers like Lehman and Merrill that were at 2.2 and 2 respectively.  Bear, he wrote, is even a "manageable takeover candidate."

I also remember Bove riding down both BAC and Citigroup. 
Why don't the journalist preface any of his appearances with his track record? They used to display how the analysts picks have performed since the last time they spoke.  His track record has been horrible, sorry to say.

Bottom Line:

Why trust the analysts or the banks when it comes to book value?
The banks don't even trust each other?

People are having trouble finding jobs; either they can't find one or they found one but can't sell their house to move to the opportunity.

The unemployment rate and stagnant real-estate market continues to depress home prices and increase delinquency rates.

Bank of America is highly linked to the real estate market going forward and is highly linked to the real estate market of the last few year (lawsuits galore).

What is the "real" book value of BAC?  I doubt even the company itself really knows.  But even more, I bet noone in the company would want you to even begin to calculate it because it is certainly much lower than the on-book current evaluation.

Bloomberg detailed writeup
Moynihan Tries to Keep Bank of America Intact as Mortgage Loans Fall Apart

1 comment:

  1. European banks are insolvent if they mark to market; Blackstone's Steve Schwarzman:

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000044346

    ReplyDelete